Vancouver Centre
Federal riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 38.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Centre | 60.3% | 21.7% | 7.6% | 1.5% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 46.7%+13.7 | 32.9%−11.2 | 9.2%−1.6 | 2.9%−1.4 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+13.3 | 30.4%−8.7 | 11.8%−4.2 | 2.4%−0.9 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Hedy Fry · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 24.8 points, with 63.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 38.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hedy Fry Elected | Liberal | 29,855 | 54.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Elaine Allan | Conservative | 16,368 | 30.0 | Management Consultant |
| Avi Lewis | NDP | 6,807 | 12.5 | Associate Professor (UBC) |
| Scott MacDonald | Green | 757 | 1.4 | Medical Doctor - General Practice |
| Christopher Varga | PPC | 211 | 0.4 | Real Estate Agent |
| Drew William McPherson | Independent | 63 | 0.1 | Self-Employed |
| Other candidates | 419 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Vancouver Granville Liberal, safe seat
- Vancouver East NDP, toss-up
- Vancouver Quadra Liberal, safe seat
- Vancouver Kingsway Liberal, toss-up
- Richmond Centre—Marpole Liberal, safe seat
- Burnaby North—Seymour Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated