Burnaby North—Seymour
Federal riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 38.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Burnaby North—Seymour | 64.2% | 25.4% | 2.0% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 46.7%+17.5 | 32.9%−7.5 | 9.2%−7.2 | 1.5%+0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+17.2 | 30.4%−5.0 | 11.8%−9.8 | 2.1%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Terry Beech · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 25.0 points, with 71.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 38.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terry Beech Elected | Liberal | 37,829 | 58.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Mauro Francis | Conservative | 21,742 | 33.7 | Executive Director |
| Michael Charrois | NDP | 4,121 | 6.4 | Performance Artist |
| Jesse Fulton | PPC | 366 | 0.6 | Driver |
| Other candidates | 409 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Vancouver East NDP, toss-up
- Port Moody—Coquitlam Liberal, safe seat
- North Vancouver—Capilano Liberal, safe seat
- Burnaby Central Liberal, safe seat
- Vancouver Kingsway Liberal, toss-up
- Vancouver Centre Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated