Vancouver East
Federal riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a 86% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 79%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | Liberal | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver East | 43.7% | 40.8% | 9.3% | 2.0% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 9.2%+34.5 | 46.7%−5.9 | 32.9%−23.5 | 2.9%−0.9 |
| National averageCanada | 11.8%+31.9 | 47.0%−6.2 | 30.4%−21.1 | 2.4%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Jenny Kwan · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 8.1 points, with 62.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 3.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jenny Kwan Elected | NDP | 24,945 | 43.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Mark Wiens | Liberal | 20,287 | 35.3 | Realtor |
| Lita Cabal | Conservative | 10,162 | 17.7 | IT Business Analyst |
| Nikida Steel | Green | 1,099 | 1.9 | Social Worker |
| Meghan Emily Murphy | PPC | 329 | 0.6 | Writer |
| Kimball Cariou | Other | 329 | 0.6 | Journalist |
| Other candidates | 352 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Vancouver Kingsway Liberal, toss-up
- Vancouver Granville Liberal, safe seat
- Vancouver Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Burnaby Central Liberal, safe seat
- Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Liberal, safe seat
- Burnaby North—Seymour Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated