Vancouver Granville
Federal riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 47.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Granville | 67.3% | 20.2% | 2.2% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 46.7%+20.6 | 32.9%−12.6 | 9.2%−7.0 | 2.9%−1.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+20.3 | 30.4%−10.2 | 11.8%−9.6 | 2.4%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Taleeb Noormohamed · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 33.2 points, with 69.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 47.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taleeb Noormohamed Elected | Liberal | 37,010 | 61.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Marie Rogers | Conservative | 17,133 | 28.6 | Business Woman |
| Sukhi Singh Sahota | NDP | 4,489 | 7.5 | Finance Coordinator |
| Jerry Kroll | Green | 945 | 1.6 | Business Person |
| Other candidates | 387 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Vancouver Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Vancouver Kingsway Liberal, toss-up
- Vancouver Quadra Liberal, safe seat
- Vancouver East NDP, toss-up
- Richmond Centre—Marpole Liberal, safe seat
- Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated