Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby
Federal riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 30.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby | 57.5% | 27.1% | 4.3% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 46.7%+10.8 | 32.9%−5.8 | 9.2%−4.9 | 1.5%+0.5 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+10.5 | 30.4%−3.3 | 11.8%−7.5 | 2.1%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Gregor Robertson · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 16.5 points, with 61.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 30.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gregor Robertson Elected | Liberal | 27,117 | 51.9 | Business Person |
| Avi Nayyar | Conservative | 18,500 | 35.4 | Lawyer |
| Manoj Bhangu | NDP | 5,088 | 9.7 | Small Business Owner |
| Alexander Dow | Green | 658 | 1.3 | Retired |
| Desiderio Magtanggol 'Bonn' Reyes | PPC | 482 | 0.9 | Insurance Advisor |
| Other candidates | 373 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Burnaby Central Liberal, safe seat
- Vancouver Kingsway Liberal, toss-up
- New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville Liberal, safe seat
- Richmond East—Steveston Liberal, safe seat
- Vancouver East NDP, toss-up
- Vancouver Granville Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated