New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville
Federal riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | NDP | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Westminster—Burnaby—Maillardville | 45.1% | 31.7% | 22.9% | 1.4% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 46.7%−1.6 | 9.2%+22.5 | 32.9%−10.0 | 2.9%−1.5 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−1.9 | 11.8%+19.9 | 30.4%−7.5 | 2.4%−1.0 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Jake Sawatzky · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 3.5 points, with 67.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 13.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jake Sawatzky Elected | Liberal | 19,547 | 34.9 | Instructional Facilitator |
| Peter Julian | NDP | 17,574 | 31.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Indy Panchi | Conservative | 17,507 | 31.2 | Real Estate Agent |
| Tara Shushtarian | Green | 690 | 1.2 | Social |
| Lourence Almonte Singh | Independent | 385 | 0.7 | Self-Employed Realtor |
| Other candidates | 338 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Surrey Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Burnaby Central Liberal, safe seat
- Vancouver Fraserview—South Burnaby Liberal, safe seat
- Surrey Newton Liberal, safe seat
- Port Moody—Coquitlam Liberal, safe seat
- Vancouver Kingsway Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated