Vancouver Quadra

Federal riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 46.4 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	Green	NDP
Vancouver Quadra	68.3%	21.8%	2.0%	1.5%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	46.7%+21.6	32.9%−11.1	2.9%−0.9	9.2%−7.7
National averageCanada	47.0%+21.3	30.4%−8.6	2.4%−0.4	11.8%−10.4

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 0.7% English 75.5% Other languages 23.8%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Wade Grant · Liberal

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Liberal Party won by 32.6 points, with 68.8% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 46.4 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Wade Grant Elected	Liberal	35,384	62.7	Intergovernmental Affairs Officer
Ken Charko	Conservative	17,008	30.2	Entrepreneur
Alim Fakirani	NDP	2,391	4.2	Educator
Tom Digby	Green	1,032	1.8	Attorney
John Odan Ede	PPC	182	0.3	Supply Chain Management
Other candidates		410	0.7

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.