North Vancouver—Capilano

Federal riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 41.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	Green	NDP
North Vancouver—Capilano	62.9%	21.7%	8.7%	2.0%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	46.7%+16.2	32.9%−11.1	2.9%+5.8	9.2%−7.2
National averageCanada	47.0%+15.9	30.4%−8.7	2.4%+6.3	11.8%−9.8

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	English 78.5% Other languages (French included) 21.5%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Jonathan Wilkinson · Liberal

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Liberal Party won by 26.0 points, with 71.7% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 41.2 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Jonathan Wilkinson Elected	Liberal	37,907	59.5	Parliamentarian
Stephen Curran	Conservative	21,339	33.5	Lawyer
Tammy Bentz	NDP	2,684	4.2	Script Supervisor
Andrew Robinson	Green	1,076	1.7	Consultant
Ehsan Arjmand	PPC	256	0.4	Engineer
Oliver King	Independent	102	0.2	Investor
Other candidates		388	0.6

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.