Cowichan—Malahat—Langford
Federal riding · British Columbia · Vancouver Island
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a 44% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.8 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 71%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | Liberal | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cowichan—Malahat—Langford | 32.3% | 31.7% | 29.3% | 2.1% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 9.2%+23.1 | 46.7%−15.0 | 32.9%−3.6 | 2.9%−0.8 |
| National averageCanada | 11.8%+20.5 | 47.0%−15.3 | 30.4%−1.1 | 2.4%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Jeff Kibble · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 4.6 points, with 72.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 3.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeff Kibble Elected | Conservative | 28,370 | 37.1 | Retired Veteran |
| Alistair MacGregor | NDP | 24,826 | 32.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Blair Herbert | Liberal | 21,478 | 28.1 | Real Estate Broker |
| Kathleen Code | Green | 1,500 | 2.0 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 357 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Nanaimo—Ladysmith Liberal, safe seat
- Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Liberal, safe seat
- Saanich—Gulf Islands Green, toss-up
- Victoria Liberal, safe seat
- Richmond Centre—Marpole Liberal, safe seat
- Vancouver Quadra Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated