Victoria
Federal riding · British Columbia · Vancouver Island
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 37.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | NDP | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victoria | 58.1% | 20.7% | 7.7% | 3.2% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 46.7%+11.4 | 9.2%+11.5 | 32.9%−25.2 | 2.9%+0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+11.0 | 11.8%+8.8 | 30.4%−22.8 | 2.4%+0.8 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Will Greaves · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 29.2 points, with 74.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 37.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Greaves Elected | Liberal | 41,128 | 54.0 | Professor |
| Laurel Collins | NDP | 18,877 | 24.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Angus Ross | Conservative | 12,870 | 16.9 | Stay-at-Home Parent |
| Michael Doherty | Green | 2,350 | 3.1 | Lawyer |
| David Mohr | PPC | 278 | 0.4 | Retired |
| Cody Fraser | Other | 109 | 0.1 | Bar Manager |
| Mary Moreau | Other | 83 | 0.1 | Retired |
| Steve Filipovic | Independent | 73 | 0.1 | Small Business Owner |
| Other candidates | 367 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Liberal, safe seat
- Saanich—Gulf Islands Green, toss-up
- Cowichan—Malahat—Langford NDP, toss-up
- South Surrey—White Rock Liberal, safe seat
- Delta Liberal, safe seat
- Richmond East—Steveston Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated