Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke
Federal riding · British Columbia · Vancouver Island
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 31.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke | 52.7% | 20.9% | 13.9% | 2.8% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 46.7%+6.0 | 32.9%−12.0 | 9.2%+4.7 | 2.9%−0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+5.7 | 30.4%−9.5 | 11.8%+2.1 | 2.4%+0.4 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Stephanie McLean · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 20.5 points, with 74.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 31.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephanie McLean Elected | Liberal | 36,181 | 49.1 | Lawyer |
| Grant Cool | Conservative | 21,082 | 28.6 | Engineer |
| Maja Tait | NDP | 13,666 | 18.5 | Mayor |
| Ben Homer-Dixon | Green | 1,959 | 2.7 | Student |
| David Schaafsma | Other | 159 | 0.2 | Optometrist |
| Param Bhatti | Independent | 152 | 0.2 | Engineer |
| Robert Crooks | Other | 136 | 0.2 | Provincial Organizer |
| Other candidates | 398 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Victoria Liberal, safe seat
- Saanich—Gulf Islands Green, toss-up
- Cowichan—Malahat—Langford NDP, toss-up
- Nanaimo—Ladysmith Liberal, safe seat
- Delta Liberal, safe seat
- Richmond East—Steveston Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated