Saanich—Gulf Islands
Federal riding · British Columbia · Vancouver Island
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Green Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 80%.
Compared with the average
| Green | Liberal | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saanich—Gulf Islands | 39.1% | 35.3% | 17.2% | 3.8% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 2.9%+36.2 | 46.7%−11.3 | 32.9%−15.6 | 9.2%−5.4 |
| National averageCanada | 2.4%+36.7 | 47.0%−11.7 | 30.4%−13.2 | 11.8%−8.0 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Elizabeth May · Green
Previous election (2025)
The Green Party won by 7.2 points, with 77.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Green Party ahead by 3.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elizabeth May Elected | Green | 31,199 | 38.9 | Parliamentarian |
| David Beckham | Liberal | 25,409 | 31.7 | Renewable Energy Consultant |
| Cathie Ounsted | Conservative | 20,015 | 25.0 | Accountant |
| Colin Plant | NDP | 3,163 | 3.9 | Teacher |
| Other candidates | 335 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Liberal, safe seat
- Victoria Liberal, safe seat
- Delta Liberal, safe seat
- Richmond East—Steveston Liberal, safe seat
- Richmond Centre—Marpole Liberal, safe seat
- South Surrey—White Rock Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated