Nanaimo—Ladysmith

Federal riding · British Columbia · Vancouver Island

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.7 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 13%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	Green	NDP
Nanaimo—Ladysmith	34.3%	27.6%	18.2%	10.0%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	46.7%−12.4	32.9%−5.3	2.9%+15.3	9.2%+0.8
National averageCanada	47.0%−12.7	30.4%−2.8	2.4%+15.8	11.8%−1.8

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 0.3% English 95.9% Other languages 3.8%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Tamara Kronis · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Conservative Party won by 7.7 points, with 72.6% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 6.7 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Tamara Kronis Elected	Conservative	26,381	35.3	Lawyer
Michelle Corfield	Liberal	20,656	27.7	Consultant
Lisa Marie Barron	NDP	13,586	18.2	Parliamentarian
Paul Manly	Green	13,485	18.1	City Councillor
Stephen Welton	PPC	289	0.4	Retired
Other candidates		252	0.3

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.