Central Newfoundland

Federal riding · Newfoundland and Labrador · Atlantic Canada

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 66% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.2 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	Green
Central Newfoundland	44.5%	44.1%	2.7%	0.6%
Provincial averageNewfoundland and Labrador	55.3%−10.8	30.8%+13.4	4.5%−1.8	0.7%−0.1
National averageCanada	47.0%−2.5	30.4%+13.7	11.8%−9.1	2.4%−1.8

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 0.1% English 99.5% Other languages 0.4%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Clifford Small · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Conservative Party won by 10.4 points, with 64.2% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 1.2 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Clifford Small Elected	Conservative	21,975	53.4	Restauranteur
Lynette Powell	Liberal	17,696	43.0	Family Physician
Darian Vincent	NDP	965	2.3	Retail Worker
Other candidates		493	1.2

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.