Long Range Mountains
Federal riding · Newfoundland and Labrador · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 93%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long Range Mountains | 43.8% | 40.6% | 3.2% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageNewfoundland and Labrador | 55.3%−11.5 | 30.8%+9.8 | 4.5%−1.3 | 0.5%+0.7 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−3.2 | 30.4%+10.2 | 11.8%−8.6 | 2.1%−0.9 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Carol Anstey · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 7.5 points, with 65.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 3.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carol Anstey Elected | Conservative | 23,232 | 49.9 | Real Estate Broker |
| Don Bradshaw | Liberal | 19,726 | 42.3 | Retired |
| Sarah Parsons | NDP | 2,011 | 4.3 | Child and Youth Worker |
| Robbie Coles | Independent | 637 | 1.4 | Offshore Oil and Gas Coordinator |
| Pamela Geiger | PPC | 537 | 1.2 | Author |
| Other candidates | 451 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Central Newfoundland Liberal, toss-up
- Terra Nova—The Peninsulas Liberal, safe seat
- St. John's East Liberal, safe seat
- Avalon Liberal, safe seat
- Cape Spear Liberal, safe seat
- Sydney—Glace Bay Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated