Terra Nova—The Peninsulas
Federal riding · Newfoundland and Labrador · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terra Nova—The Peninsulas | 48.5% | 37.7% | 3.1% | 0.6% |
| Provincial averageNewfoundland and Labrador | 55.3%−6.9 | 30.8%+7.0 | 4.5%−1.3 | 0.7%−0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+1.5 | 30.4%+7.3 | 11.8%−8.7 | 2.4%−1.8 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Jonathan Rowe · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 0.0 points, with 64.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 10.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Rowe Elected | Conservative | 19,605 | 47.0 | Engineer |
| Anthony Germain | Liberal | 19,593 | 47.0 | Teacher |
| Liam Ryan | NDP | 1,677 | 4.0 | Student |
| Other candidates | 820 | 2.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- St. John's East Liberal, safe seat
- Cape Spear Liberal, safe seat
- Avalon Liberal, safe seat
- Central Newfoundland Liberal, toss-up
- Long Range Mountains Liberal, toss-up
- Sydney—Glace Bay Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated