Cape Spear
Federal riding · Newfoundland and Labrador · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 55.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cape Spear | 71.7% | 16.7% | 5.0% | 0.9% |
| Provincial averageNewfoundland and Labrador | 55.3%+16.4 | 30.8%−14.1 | 4.5%+0.5 | 0.7%+0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+24.7 | 30.4%−13.7 | 11.8%−6.8 | 2.4%−1.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Tom Osborne · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 42.1 points, with 66.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 55.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Osborne Elected | Liberal | 31,388 | 67.6 | General Manager |
| Corey Curtis | Conservative | 11,844 | 25.5 | Vice President, Marine Fleet |
| Brenda Walsh | NDP | 2,446 | 5.3 | Retired |
| Mike Peach | Other | 170 | 0.4 | Academic Tutor |
| Kaelem Tingate | Green | 140 | 0.3 | Distiller |
| Other candidates | 451 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- St. John's East Liberal, safe seat
- Avalon Liberal, safe seat
- Terra Nova—The Peninsulas Liberal, safe seat
- Central Newfoundland Liberal, toss-up
- Long Range Mountains Liberal, toss-up
- Sydney—Glace Bay Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated