Avalon
Federal riding · Newfoundland and Labrador · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 33.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avalon | 60.8% | 27.5% | 3.9% | 0.6% |
| Provincial averageNewfoundland and Labrador | 55.3%+5.4 | 30.8%−3.3 | 4.5%−0.6 | 0.7%−0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+13.8 | 30.4%−2.9 | 11.8%−7.9 | 2.4%−1.8 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Paul Connors · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 22.4 points, with 66.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 33.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paul Connors Elected | Liberal | 27,563 | 58.1 | Executive Assistant |
| Steve Kent | Conservative | 16,953 | 35.8 | Consultant |
| Judy Vanta | NDP | 2,284 | 4.8 | Retired |
| Alexander Tilley | Other | 230 | 0.5 | Seafood Worker |
| Other candidates | 386 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cape Spear Liberal, safe seat
- St. John's East Liberal, safe seat
- Terra Nova—The Peninsulas Liberal, safe seat
- Central Newfoundland Liberal, toss-up
- Long Range Mountains Liberal, toss-up
- Sydney—Glace Bay Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated