St. John's East
Federal riding · Newfoundland and Labrador · Atlantic Canada
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 49.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| St. John's East | 65.8% | 16.9% | 9.6% | 0.9% |
| Provincial averageNewfoundland and Labrador | 55.3%+10.5 | 30.8%−13.9 | 4.5%+5.1 | 0.7%+0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+18.8 | 30.4%−13.5 | 11.8%−2.2 | 2.4%−1.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Joanne Thompson · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 36.0 points, with 70.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 49.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joanne Thompson Elected | Liberal | 28,681 | 61.7 | Parliamentarian |
| David Brazil | Conservative | 11,941 | 25.7 | Managing Partner - Small Business |
| Mary Shortall | NDP | 5,172 | 11.1 | Retired |
| Otis Crandell | Green | 159 | 0.3 | Academic Researcher |
| Samuel Crête | Other | 98 | 0.2 | Residential Counsellor |
| Other candidates | 441 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cape Spear Liberal, safe seat
- Avalon Liberal, safe seat
- Terra Nova—The Peninsulas Liberal, safe seat
- Central Newfoundland Liberal, toss-up
- Long Range Mountains Liberal, toss-up
- Sydney—Glace Bay Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated