Skeena—Bulkley Valley
Federal riding · British Columbia · Northern B.C.
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a 71% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.5 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | Conservative | Liberal | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Skeena—Bulkley Valley | 39.0% | 38.2% | 12.9% | 1.3% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 9.2%+29.8 | 32.9%+5.3 | 46.7%−33.8 | 2.9%−1.6 |
| National averageCanada | 11.8%+27.2 | 30.4%+7.8 | 47.0%−34.1 | 2.4%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Ellis Ross · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 7.8 points, with 64.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 1.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ellis Ross Elected | Conservative | 21,202 | 46.9 | Former Legislator |
| Taylor Bachrach | NDP | 17,677 | 39.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Inderpal Dhillon | Liberal | 4,923 | 10.9 | Self-Employed |
| Rod Taylor | Other | 602 | 1.3 | Author |
| Adeana Young | Green | 528 | 1.2 | First Nations Language Teacher |
| Other candidates | 304 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies Conservative, safe seat
- Cariboo—Prince George Conservative, safe seat
- North Island—Powell River NDP, toss-up
- Grande Prairie Conservative, safe seat
- Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola Liberal, toss-up
- West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated