West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country
Federal riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 42.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | Green | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country | 66.0% | 23.2% | 3.6% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 46.7%+19.3 | 32.9%−9.6 | 2.9%+0.7 | 1.5%+0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+19.0 | 30.4%−7.2 | 2.4%+1.2 | 2.1%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Patrick Weiler · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 26.7 points, with 71.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 42.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Weiler Elected | Liberal | 38,384 | 59.5 | Lawyer |
| Keith Roy | Conservative | 21,181 | 32.8 | Realtor |
| Lauren Greenlaw | Green | 2,205 | 3.4 | Municipal Councillor, District of Squamish |
| Jäger Rosenberg | NDP | 2,070 | 3.2 | Student |
| Peyman Askari | PPC | 308 | 0.5 | Software Developer |
| Gordon Jeffrey | Other | 99 | 0.2 | Waiter |
| Other candidates | 264 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- North Vancouver—Capilano Liberal, safe seat
- Burnaby North—Seymour Liberal, safe seat
- Vancouver Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Liberal, safe seat
- Vancouver East NDP, toss-up
- Vancouver Quadra Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated