Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola
Federal riding · British Columbia · B.C. Interior
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 54% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.5 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | PPC | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola | 43.6% | 43.5% | 1.8% | 1.6% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 46.7%−3.1 | 32.9%+10.7 | 1.5%+0.4 | 2.9%−1.3 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−3.4 | 30.4%+13.1 | 2.1%−0.3 | 2.4%−0.8 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Frank Caputo · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 11.3 points, with 69.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 1.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frank Caputo Elected | Conservative | 32,008 | 51.3 | Parliamentarian |
| Iain Currie | Liberal | 24,961 | 40.0 | Lawyer |
| Miguel Godau | NDP | 3,681 | 5.9 | Therapist |
| Jenna Lindley | Green | 936 | 1.5 | Business Owner |
| Chris Enns | PPC | 516 | 0.8 | Project Manager |
| Other candidates | 316 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Chilliwack—Hope Conservative, safe seat
- Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford Conservative, safe seat
- Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna Liberal, toss-up
- Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay Liberal, competitive
- Cariboo—Prince George Conservative, safe seat
- Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated