Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna
Federal riding · British Columbia · B.C. Interior
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 55%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | PPC | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna | 47.6% | 42.9% | 1.5% | 1.1% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 46.7%+0.9 | 32.9%+10.0 | 1.5% | 2.9%−1.8 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+0.6 | 30.4%+12.5 | 2.1%−0.6 | 2.4%−1.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Dan Albas · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 6.7 points, with 72.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 4.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dan Albas Elected | Conservative | 33,219 | 50.6 | Parliamentarian |
| Juliette Sicotte | Liberal | 28,827 | 43.9 | Sales |
| Harpreet Badohal | NDP | 2,189 | 3.3 | Occupational Hygienist |
| Louise Lecouffe | Green | 602 | 0.9 | Farmer |
| Debbie Robinson | PPC | 307 | 0.5 | Retired |
| Gary Suddard | Other | 90 | 0.1 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 377 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kelowna Liberal, safe seat
- Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay Liberal, competitive
- Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee Liberal, toss-up
- Chilliwack—Hope Conservative, safe seat
- Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford Conservative, safe seat
- Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated