Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee
Federal riding · British Columbia · B.C. Interior
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 72%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | Green | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee | 46.2% | 42.3% | 1.8% | 1.2% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 46.7%−0.5 | 32.9%+9.5 | 2.9%−1.1 | 9.2%−8.0 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−0.8 | 30.4%+11.9 | 2.4%−0.6 | 11.8%−10.6 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Scott Anderson · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 7.5 points, with 72.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 3.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Scott Anderson Elected | Conservative | 33,850 | 50.1 | Business Person |
| Anna Warwick Sears | Liberal | 28,769 | 42.6 | Retired Executive Director |
| Leah Ellen Main | NDP | 3,417 | 5.1 | Local Government Official |
| Blair Visscher | Green | 1,105 | 1.6 | Teacher |
| Other candidates | 437 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kelowna Liberal, safe seat
- Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna Liberal, toss-up
- Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay Liberal, competitive
- Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies Conservative, toss-up
- Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies Conservative, safe seat
- Chilliwack—Hope Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated