Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies
Federal riding · British Columbia · B.C. Interior
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a 84% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.1 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 95%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | Green | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies | 44.3% | 42.4% | 2.5% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 32.9%+11.4 | 46.7%−4.2 | 2.9%−0.4 | 1.5%+0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+13.9 | 47.0%−4.6 | 2.4%+0.1 | 2.1%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Mel Arnold · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 13.2 points, with 73.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 2.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mel Arnold Elected | Conservative | 35,556 | 52.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Ken Robertson | Liberal | 26,529 | 38.8 | Business Owner |
| Phaedra Idzan | NDP | 3,730 | 5.5 | Customer Service |
| Owen Madden | Green | 1,639 | 2.4 | Farmer |
| John Michael Henry | PPC | 602 | 0.9 | Building Technologist |
| Other candidates | 321 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Yellowhead Conservative, safe seat
- Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee Liberal, toss-up
- Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies Conservative, safe seat
- Kelowna Liberal, safe seat
- Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna Liberal, toss-up
- Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola Liberal, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated