Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies
Federal riding · British Columbia · B.C. Interior
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Columbia—Kootenay—Southern Rockies | 41.5% | 30.1% | 11.3% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 32.9%+8.7 | 46.7%−16.5 | 9.2%+2.1 | 1.5%+0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+11.1 | 47.0%−16.9 | 11.8%−0.5 | 2.1%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Rob Morrison · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 22.1 points, with 73.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 11.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Morrison Elected | Conservative | 36,081 | 50.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Reggie Goldsbury | Liberal | 20,184 | 28.1 | Executive Assistant |
| Kallee Lins | NDP | 12,871 | 17.9 | Executive Director |
| Steven Maffioli | Green | 1,064 | 1.5 | Grocery Store Worker |
| James Wiedrick | Independent | 856 | 1.2 | Physician |
| Laurie Baird | PPC | 486 | 0.7 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 318 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Foothills Conservative, safe seat
- Calgary Heritage Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary Signal Hill Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary Midnapore Conservative, toss-up
- Calgary Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Calgary Crowfoot Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated