Kelowna
Federal riding · British Columbia · B.C. Interior
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | Green | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelowna | 52.1% | 38.9% | 1.1% | 1.0% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 46.7%+5.4 | 32.9%+6.0 | 2.9%−1.8 | 1.5%−0.4 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+5.1 | 30.4%+8.5 | 2.4%−1.3 | 2.1%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Stephen Fuhr · Liberal
Previous election (2025)
The Liberal Party won by 1.8 points, with 70.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 13.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stephen Fuhr Elected | Liberal | 28,702 | 48.5 | Pilot |
| Tracy Gray | Conservative | 27,620 | 46.6 | Parliamentarian |
| Trevor McAleese | NDP | 1,941 | 3.3 | Video Game Developer |
| Catriona Wright | Green | 578 | 1.0 | Volunteer Coordinator |
| Other candidates | 387 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna Liberal, toss-up
- Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee Liberal, toss-up
- Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay Liberal, competitive
- Chilliwack—Hope Conservative, safe seat
- Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford Conservative, safe seat
- Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated