Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford
Federal riding · British Columbia · Metro Vancouver
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 10%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | PPC | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford | 48.2% | 40.7% | 1.8% | 1.3% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 32.9%+15.3 | 46.7%−6.0 | 1.5%+0.4 | 2.9%−1.6 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+17.8 | 47.0%−6.3 | 2.1%−0.3 | 2.4%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Brad Vis · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 19.9 points, with 70.3% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 7.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brad Vis Elected | Conservative | 33,791 | 56.4 | Parliamentarian |
| Jeff Howe | Liberal | 21,838 | 36.4 | Lawyer |
| Jules Côté | NDP | 2,745 | 4.6 | Farmer |
| John Kidder | Green | 723 | 1.2 | Entrepreneur |
| Kevin Sinclair | PPC | 502 | 0.8 | Truck Driver |
| Other candidates | 346 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Chilliwack—Hope Conservative, safe seat
- Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Liberal, safe seat
- Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Liberal, safe seat
- Langley Township—Fraser Heights Liberal, toss-up
- Abbotsford—South Langley Liberal, toss-up
- Fleetwood—Port Kells Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated