Chilliwack—Hope
Federal riding · British Columbia · B.C. Interior
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | Green | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chilliwack—Hope | 46.8% | 38.8% | 1.8% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 32.9%+13.9 | 46.7%−7.8 | 2.9%−1.1 | 1.5%+0.3 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+16.4 | 47.0%−8.2 | 2.4%−0.6 | 2.1%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Mark Strahl · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 19.3 points, with 67.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 8.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Strahl Elected | Conservative | 36,027 | 54.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Zeeshan Khan | Liberal | 23,254 | 35.2 | Child Care Worker |
| Teri Westerby | NDP | 4,779 | 7.2 | Marketing Professional |
| Salina Derish | Green | 1,083 | 1.6 | Business Owner |
| Jeff Galbraith | PPC | 482 | 0.7 | Assembly Worker |
| Christopher Adam | Other | 129 | 0.2 | Drywall Owner |
| Other candidates | 302 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford Conservative, safe seat
- Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Liberal, safe seat
- Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay Liberal, competitive
- Abbotsford—South Langley Liberal, toss-up
- Langley Township—Fraser Heights Liberal, toss-up
- Coquitlam—Port Coquitlam Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated