Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay
Federal riding · British Columbia · B.C. Interior
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 17%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Similkameen—South Okanagan—West Kootenay | 41.6% | 35.2% | 8.2% | 1.9% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 46.7%−5.1 | 32.9%+2.3 | 9.2%−1.0 | 1.5%+0.5 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%−5.4 | 30.4%+4.8 | 11.8%−3.6 | 2.1%−0.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Helena Konanz · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 6.8 points, with 71.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 6.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Helena Konanz Elected | Conservative | 30,054 | 43.9 | City Councillor |
| Gloria Morgan | Liberal | 25,431 | 37.1 | Retired Lawyer |
| Linda Sankey | NDP | 11,033 | 16.1 | Executive Director, SOS Brain Injury Society |
| Philip Mansfield | Green | 1,044 | 1.5 | Software Engineering Manager |
| Barry Dewar | PPC | 654 | 1.0 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 322 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Okanagan Lake West—South Kelowna Liberal, toss-up
- Chilliwack—Hope Conservative, safe seat
- Kelowna Liberal, safe seat
- Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford Conservative, safe seat
- Vernon—Lake Country—Monashee Liberal, toss-up
- Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated