Yellowhead
Federal riding · Alberta · Rural Alberta
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yellowhead | 42.0% | 33.2% | 3.2% | 2.4% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 42.7%−0.7 | 41.0%−7.8 | 5.9%−2.7 | 1.8%+0.6 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+11.6 | 47.0%−13.8 | 11.8%−8.6 | 2.1%+0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
William Stevenson · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 43.6 points, with 74.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 8.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Stevenson Elected | Conservative | 47,863 | 68.6 | Chartered Professional Accountant |
| Michael Fark | Liberal | 17,469 | 25.0 | Director of Recovery |
| Avni Soma | NDP | 2,753 | 3.9 | Entrepreneur |
| Vicky Bayford | PPC | 952 | 1.4 | Operations Technician |
| Dale Heath | Other | 253 | 0.4 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 481 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ponoka—Didsbury Conservative, safe seat
- Kamloops—Shuswap—Central Rockies Conservative, toss-up
- Parkland Conservative, safe seat
- Red Deer Conservative, safe seat
- Leduc—Wetaskiwin Conservative, safe seat
- Airdrie—Cochrane Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated