Parkland
Federal riding · Alberta · Rural Alberta
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 27.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Parkland | 52.3% | 24.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 42.7%+9.6 | 41.0%−16.4 | 5.9%−3.0 | 1.8%+0.6 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+21.9 | 47.0%−22.4 | 11.8%−8.9 | 2.1%+0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Dane Lloyd · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 57.0 points, with 74.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 27.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dane Lloyd Elected | Conservative | 53,468 | 74.8 | Parliamentarian |
| Ashley Fearnall | Liberal | 12,690 | 17.7 | Director of Human Resources |
| Keri Goad | NDP | 2,949 | 4.1 | Teacher |
| Jason Lavigne | PPC | 1,066 | 1.5 | Independent Journalist |
| Daniel Birrell | Green | 449 | 0.6 | Stay-at-Home Dad |
| Wade Klassen | Other | 287 | 0.4 | Carpenter |
| Kevin Schulthies | Other | 198 | 0.3 | Self-Employed Graphic Designer |
| Other candidates | 393 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- St. Albert—Sturgeon River Liberal, toss-up
- Edmonton West Liberal, safe seat
- Edmonton Northwest Liberal, safe seat
- Edmonton Riverbend Liberal, safe seat
- Edmonton Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Leduc—Wetaskiwin Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated