Edmonton Centre

Federal riding · Alberta · Edmonton

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 43.7 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	PPC
Edmonton Centre	63.6%	19.9%	12.4%	1.8%
Provincial averageAlberta	41.0%+22.6	42.7%−22.8	5.9%+6.6	1.8%
National averageCanada	47.0%+16.6	30.4%−10.5	11.8%+0.6	2.1%−0.3

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	English 85.0% Other languages (French included) 15.0%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Eleanor Olszewski · Liberal

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Liberal Party won by 6.4 points, with 63.1% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 43.7 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Eleanor Olszewski Elected	Liberal	24,138	44.0	Lawyer
Sayid Ahmed	Conservative	20,626	37.6	Economist
Trisha Estabrooks	NDP	8,440	15.4	Consultant
John Ross	PPC	468	0.9	Construction Technologist
David John Bohonos	Other	158	0.3	Bus Driver
Gregory Bell	Independent	155	0.3	Software Developer
Mike Dutcher	Independent	137	0.2	Asset Integrity Specialist
Naomi Rankin	Other	133	0.2	Retired Computer Programmer
Ronald S. Billingsley Jr.	Independent	106	0.2	Attorney
Merryn Edwards de la O	Other	67	0.1	Union Representative
Other candidates		481	0.9

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.