Edmonton Manning
Federal riding · Alberta · Edmonton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton Manning | 52.3% | 34.9% | 5.3% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 41.0%+11.3 | 42.7%−7.8 | 5.9%−0.6 | 1.8%+0.8 |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+5.3 | 30.4%+4.5 | 11.8%−6.5 | 2.1%+0.4 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Ziad Aboultaif · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 17.6 points, with 61.2% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 17.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ziad Aboultaif Elected | Conservative | 26,445 | 52.6 | Parliamentarian |
| Blair-Marie Coles | Liberal | 17,603 | 35.0 | Manager, Education and Engagement |
| Lesley Thompson | NDP | 4,935 | 9.8 | Project Manager |
| Robert Bard | PPC | 824 | 1.6 | Retired |
| Other candidates | 507 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Edmonton Griesbach NDP, toss-up
- Edmonton Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Edmonton Strathcona NDP, safe seat
- Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan Conservative, toss-up
- Edmonton Northwest Liberal, safe seat
- Edmonton Southeast Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated