Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan
Federal riding · Alberta · Edmonton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 71%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan | 39.4% | 35.2% | 3.5% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 42.7%−3.3 | 41.0%−5.8 | 5.9%−2.4 | 1.8%−0.1 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+9.0 | 47.0%−11.8 | 11.8%−8.3 | 2.1%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Garnett Genuis · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 39.0 points, with 78.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 4.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Garnett Genuis Elected | Conservative | 54,131 | 66.1 | Parliamentarian |
| Tanya Holm | Liberal | 22,178 | 27.1 | Self-Employed |
| Chris Jones | NDP | 4,136 | 5.0 | Pipe Fitter |
| Jay Sobel | PPC | 497 | 0.6 | Chartered Industrial Designer |
| Randall Emmons | Green | 448 | 0.5 | Arena Operator |
| Mark Horseman | Other | 237 | 0.3 | Consultant |
| Other candidates | 303 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Edmonton Manning Liberal, safe seat
- Edmonton Griesbach NDP, toss-up
- Edmonton Strathcona NDP, safe seat
- Edmonton Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Edmonton Southeast Liberal, safe seat
- Edmonton Gateway Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated