Edmonton Gateway
Federal riding · Alberta · Edmonton
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Liberal | Conservative | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton Gateway | 54.4% | 33.0% | 4.1% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 41.0%+13.5 | 42.7%−9.7 | 5.9%−1.8 | 1.8% |
| National averageCanada | 47.0%+7.4 | 30.4%+2.6 | 11.8%−7.8 | 2.1%−0.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Tim Uppal · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 13.2 points, with 68.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 21.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Uppal Elected | Conservative | 26,385 | 50.6 | Consultant |
| Jeremy Hoefsloot | Liberal | 19,435 | 37.3 | Lawyer |
| Madeline Mayes | NDP | 2,565 | 4.9 | Sales Associate |
| Rod Loyola | Independent | 2,455 | 4.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Ashok Patel | Independent | 838 | 1.6 | Mechanical Engineer |
| Paul McCormack | PPC | 474 | 0.9 | Retired |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Edmonton Southeast Liberal, safe seat
- Edmonton Riverbend Liberal, safe seat
- Edmonton Strathcona NDP, safe seat
- Edmonton West Liberal, safe seat
- Edmonton Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Edmonton Griesbach NDP, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated