Edmonton Griesbach

Federal riding · Alberta · Edmonton

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the NDP a 69% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.1 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 94%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	NDP	Liberal	Conservative	PPC
Edmonton Griesbach	36.6%	35.5%	27.4%	1.6%
Provincial averageAlberta	5.9%+30.8	41.0%−5.5	42.7%−15.3	1.8%−0.2
National averageCanada	11.8%+24.8	47.0%−11.5	30.4%−3.0	2.1%−0.5

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	English 81.5% Other languages (French included) 18.5%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Kerry Diotte · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Conservative Party won by 11.2 points, with 56.8% turnout.

Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 2.1 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Kerry Diotte Elected	Conservative	22,256	45.0	Journalist
Blake Desjarlais	NDP	16,717	33.8	Parliamentarian
Patrick Lennox	Liberal	8,973	18.2	Federal Public Servant
Thomas Matty	PPC	318	0.6	Self-Employed
Michael Hunter	Green	302	0.6	Classical Guitar Instructor
Alex Boykowich	Other	146	0.3	Independent Researcher
Crystal Vargas	Independent	118	0.2	Student
Brent Tyson	Other	72	0.1	Lawyer
Mary Joyce	Other	64	0.1	Artist
Other candidates		448	0.9

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.