Edmonton West

Federal riding · Alberta · Edmonton

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	PPC
Edmonton West	57.7%	34.9%	4.1%	1.8%
Provincial averageAlberta	41.0%+16.7	42.7%−7.8	5.9%−1.7	1.8%
National averageCanada	47.0%+10.7	30.4%+4.5	11.8%−7.7	2.1%−0.3

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	English 82.4% Other languages (French included) 17.6%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Kelly McCauley · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Conservative Party won by 12.1 points, with 69.9% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 22.8 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Kelly McCauley Elected	Conservative	31,201	52.6	Parliamentarian
Brad Fournier	Liberal	23,995	40.4	Business Executive
Sean McQuillan	NDP	3,164	5.3	Film Technician
Brent Kinzel	PPC	534	0.9	Yard Supervisor
Peggy Morton	Other	121	0.2	Retired Health Care Worker
Other candidates		359	0.6

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.