St. Albert—Sturgeon River

Federal riding · Alberta · Edmonton

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.5 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 41%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	NDP	PPC
St. Albert—Sturgeon River	46.2%	40.7%	4.1%	2.2%
Provincial averageAlberta	41.0%+5.2	42.7%−2.0	5.9%−1.7	1.8%+0.4
National averageCanada	47.0%−0.9	30.4%+10.3	11.8%−7.7	2.1%

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 0.9% English 96.6% Other languages 2.5%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Michael Cooper · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Conservative Party won by 33.9 points, with 76.8% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 5.5 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Michael Cooper Elected	Conservative	49,216	63.7	Parliamentarian
Lucia Stachurski	Liberal	22,977	29.7	Retired Accountant
Dorothy Anderson	NDP	3,684	4.8	Senior Advisor
Brigitte Cecelia	PPC	820	1.1	Retail Manager
Jeff Willerton	Other	264	0.3	Salesperson
Other candidates		350	0.5

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.