Cariboo—Prince George
Federal riding · British Columbia · Northern B.C.
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | Green | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cariboo—Prince George | 51.3% | 32.3% | 1.9% | 1.7% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 32.9%+18.4 | 46.7%−14.4 | 2.9%−1.0 | 1.5%+0.2 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+20.9 | 47.0%−14.7 | 2.4%−0.5 | 2.1%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Todd Doherty · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 29.8 points, with 68.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 19.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Todd Doherty Elected | Conservative | 38,175 | 60.0 | Parliamentarian |
| Clinton Emslie | Liberal | 19,243 | 30.2 | Chief Executive Officer |
| Angie Bonazzo | NDP | 3,900 | 6.1 | Mental Health Support Worker |
| Jodie Capling | Green | 1,155 | 1.8 | Yoga Teacher |
| Rudy Sans | PPC | 436 | 0.7 | Deputy Sheriff |
| Kenneth B. Thomson | Independent | 208 | 0.3 | Lawyer |
| Jake Wiens | Other | 174 | 0.3 | Retired Teacher |
| Other candidates | 355 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Kamloops—Thompson—Nicola Liberal, toss-up
- West Vancouver—Sunshine Coast—Sea to Sky Country Liberal, safe seat
- North Island—Powell River NDP, toss-up
- Pitt Meadows—Maple Ridge Liberal, safe seat
- Mission—Matsqui—Abbotsford Conservative, safe seat
- North Vancouver—Capilano Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated