North Island—Powell River

Federal riding · British Columbia · Vancouver Island

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the NDP a 76% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.7 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 100%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	NDP	Conservative	Liberal	Green
North Island—Powell River	32.3%	30.9%	29.8%	2.0%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia	9.2%+23.1	32.9%−2.0	46.7%−16.9	2.9%−0.9
National averageCanada	11.8%+20.5	30.4%+0.5	47.0%−17.3	2.4%−0.4

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 0.6% English 97.5% Other languages 1.9%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Aaron Gunn · Conservative

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Conservative Party won by 6.2 points, with 73.8% turnout.

Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 1.7 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Aaron Gunn Elected	Conservative	31,356	38.6	Filmmaker
Tanille Johnston	NDP	26,357	32.4	Primary Care Regional Manager
Jennifer Lash	Liberal	21,218	26.1	Senior Policy Advisor
Jessica Wegg	Green	1,505	1.9	Lawyer
Paul Macknight	PPC	341	0.4	Painter
Glen Staples	Independent	152	0.2	Retired Math Instructor
Other candidates		304	0.4

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.