Courtenay—Alberni
Federal riding · British Columbia · Vancouver Island
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the NDP a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 13%.
Compared with the average
| NDP | Conservative | Liberal | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Courtenay—Alberni | 39.3% | 27.3% | 26.2% | 1.8% |
| Provincial averageBritish Columbia | 9.2%+30.1 | 32.9%−5.6 | 46.7%−20.5 | 2.9%−1.1 |
| National averageCanada | 11.8%+27.5 | 30.4%−3.1 | 47.0%−20.8 | 2.4%−0.6 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Gord Johns · NDP
Previous election (2025)
The NDP won by 4.5 points, with 73.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the NDP ahead by 10.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gord Johns Elected | NDP | 31,617 | 39.5 | Parliamentarian |
| Kris McNichol | Conservative | 28,028 | 35.0 | Business Owner |
| Brian Cameron | Liberal | 18,078 | 22.6 | Aircraft Engineer |
| Chris Markevich | Green | 1,352 | 1.7 | Customer Support Specialist |
| Thomas Gamble | PPC | 427 | 0.5 | Entrepreneur |
| Teresa Knight | Other | 195 | 0.2 | Substitute Teacher |
| Jesse Musial | Other | 69 | 0.1 | Business Management |
| Other candidates | 358 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Cowichan—Malahat—Langford NDP, toss-up
- Nanaimo—Ladysmith Liberal, safe seat
- Esquimalt—Saanich—Sooke Liberal, safe seat
- Saanich—Gulf Islands Green, toss-up
- Richmond Centre—Marpole Liberal, safe seat
- Vancouver Quadra Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated