Grande Prairie
Federal riding · Alberta · Rural Alberta
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 40.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Grande Prairie | 58.8% | 18.6% | 2.9% | 2.3% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 42.7%+16.1 | 41.0%−22.3 | 5.9%−3.0 | 1.8%+0.5 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+28.4 | 47.0%−28.4 | 11.8%−8.9 | 2.1%+0.2 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
|
|---|
Current member
Chris Warkentin · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 69.4 points, with 69.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 40.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Warkentin Elected | Conservative | 47,904 | 81.2 | Parliamentarian |
| Maureen Mcleod | Liberal | 6,946 | 11.8 | Retired |
| Jennifer Villebrun | NDP | 2,460 | 4.2 | Teacher |
| Shawn McLean | PPC | 828 | 1.4 | Instrumentation Technician |
| Donovan Eckstrom | Other | 291 | 0.5 | Teacher |
| Elliot McDavid | Independent | 223 | 0.4 | Self-Employed |
| Other candidates | 350 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Peace River—Westlock Conservative, safe seat
- Prince George—Peace River—Northern Rockies Conservative, safe seat
- Fort McMurray—Cold Lake Conservative, safe seat
- St. Albert—Sturgeon River Liberal, toss-up
- Parkland Conservative, safe seat
- Edmonton Northwest Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated