Fort McMurray—Cold Lake
Federal riding · Alberta · Rural Alberta
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 35.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | PPC | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fort McMurray—Cold Lake | 57.2% | 21.3% | 2.7% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 42.7%+14.5 | 41.0%−19.7 | 1.8%+0.9 | 5.9%−3.3 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+26.8 | 47.0%−25.7 | 2.1%+0.6 | 11.8%−9.3 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Laila Goodridge · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 65.2 points, with 62.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 35.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laila Goodridge Elected | Conservative | 39,649 | 79.6 | Parliamentarian |
| Kaitlyn Staines | Liberal | 7,193 | 14.4 | Political Staffer |
| You-Ju Choi | NDP | 1,337 | 2.7 | Train Conductor |
| Alan Clarke | PPC | 896 | 1.8 | Heavy Duty Mechanic |
| Brian Deheer | Green | 290 | 0.6 | Musician |
| Kulbir Chawla | Independent | 101 | 0.2 | Engineer |
| Other candidates | 326 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Peace River—Westlock Conservative, safe seat
- Lakeland Conservative, safe seat
- St. Albert—Sturgeon River Liberal, toss-up
- Grande Prairie Conservative, safe seat
- Edmonton Manning Liberal, safe seat
- Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated