Lakeland
Federal riding · Alberta · Rural Alberta
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservative Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 39.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Liberal | NDP | PPC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lakeland | 58.2% | 19.0% | 2.8% | 2.6% |
| Provincial averageAlberta | 42.7%+15.5 | 41.0%−22.0 | 5.9%−3.1 | 1.8%+0.8 |
| National averageCanada | 30.4%+27.8 | 47.0%−28.0 | 11.8%−9.0 | 2.1%+0.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Shannon Stubbs · Conservative
Previous election (2025)
The Conservative Party won by 68.6 points, with 69.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Conservative Party ahead by 39.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Shannon Stubbs Elected | Conservative | 45,826 | 80.7 | Parliamentarian |
| Barry Milaney | Liberal | 6,886 | 12.1 | Retired |
| Des Bissonnette | NDP | 2,153 | 3.8 | Receptionist |
| Michael Manchen | PPC | 982 | 1.7 | President |
| Bridget Burns | Green | 411 | 0.7 | Event Organizer |
| Micheal Speirs | Other | 335 | 0.6 | Teacher |
| Other candidates | 214 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sherwood Park—Fort Saskatchewan Conservative, toss-up
- Edmonton Manning Liberal, safe seat
- Edmonton Griesbach NDP, toss-up
- Edmonton Strathcona NDP, safe seat
- Edmonton Centre Liberal, safe seat
- Edmonton Southeast Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated