Thursday, October 15, 2026
B.C. votes in 9 days

Repentigny

Federal riding · Quebec

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Bloc Québécois a 83% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.2 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 80%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Bloc 41.5%
  • Liberal 38.8%
  • Conservative 16.8%
  • NDP 5.8%
  • PPC 1.5%
  • Green 0.7%

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

Compared with the average

Bloc Liberal Conservative NDP
Repentigny 41.5%38.8%16.8%5.8%
Provincial averageQuebec 27.3%+14.2 43.6%−4.7 24.2%−7.4 5.7%+0.1
National averageCanada 6.3%+35.2 47.0%−8.2 30.4%−13.6 11.8%−6.0

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Local profile

Language spoken most often at home
  • French 94.8%
  • English 1.8%
  • Other languages 3.4%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Current member

Patrick Bonin · Bloc

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

Previous election (2025)

The Bloc Québécois won by 3.4 points, with 71.3% turnout.

Our current projection: the Bloc Québécois ahead by 3.2 points.

Candidates and votes in 2025

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Patrick Bonin Elected Bloc 26,593 41.5 Political Advisor
Pierre Richard Thomas Liberal 24,419 38.1 Teacher
Charles Champagne Conservative 9,583 14.9 Bus Driver
Nathalie Gagnon NDP 1,722 2.7 Customer Service Manager
Benoit Lanoue PPC 384 0.6 Printer
Ednal Marc Independent 314 0.5 Teacher
Other candidates 1,126 1.8

Nearby ridings

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

  1. Central NewfoundlandLiberal66%1.2-point gap
  2. Niagara WestConservative53%1.2-point gap
  3. Windsor WestConservative56%1.3-point gap
Forecast updated