Montcalm
Federal riding · Quebec
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Bloc Québécois a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Bloc | Liberal | Conservative | NDP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montcalm | 46.0% | 27.1% | 23.8% | 6.3% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 27.3%+18.7 | 43.6%−16.4 | 24.2%−0.3 | 5.7%+0.6 |
| National averageCanada | 6.3%+39.7 | 47.0%−19.9 | 30.4%−6.6 | 11.8%−5.5 |
Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Language spoken most often at home |
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Current member
Luc Thériault · Bloc
Previous election (2025)
The Bloc Québécois won by 19.2 points, with 63.9% turnout.
Our current projection: the Bloc Québécois ahead by 18.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % | Occupation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luc Thériault Elected | Bloc | 27,268 | 45.6 | Parliamentarian |
| Fatima Badran | Liberal | 15,769 | 26.4 | Political Attaché |
| Jean-Sébastien Lepage | Conservative | 13,589 | 22.7 | Computer Scientist |
| Denis Perreault | NDP | 1,893 | 3.2 | City Bus Driver |
| Other candidates | 1,292 | 2.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Terrebonne Liberal, toss-up
- Repentigny Bloc, toss-up
- Rivière-du-Nord Bloc, safe seat
- Thérèse-De Blainville Liberal, safe seat
- Les Pays-d'en-Haut Liberal, toss-up
- Honoré-Mercier Liberal, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated