Les Pays-d'en-Haut

Federal riding · Quebec

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 42%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Bloc	Conservative	NDP
Les Pays-d'en-Haut	41.3%	35.7%	19.7%	3.7%
Provincial averageQuebec	43.6%−2.3	27.3%+8.4	24.2%−4.5	5.7%−2.0
National averageCanada	47.0%−5.7	6.3%+29.4	30.4%−10.7	11.8%−8.1

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 92.7% English 6.5% Other languages 0.8%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Tim Watchorn · Liberal

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Liberal Party won by 4.8 points, with 69.7% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 5.6 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Tim Watchorn Elected	Liberal	26,967	40.5	Engineer
Ariane Charbonneau	Bloc	23,750	35.7	Lawyer
Vincent Leroux	Conservative	11,816	17.8	Engineer
Eric-Abel Baland	NDP	1,493	2.2	Retired Cultural and Artistic Manager
Karine Steinberger	Green	1,038	1.6	Tattoo Artist
George Mogiljansky	PPC	639	1.0	Retired Medical Technologist
Other candidates		849	1.3

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.