Mirabel

Federal riding · Quebec

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Bloc Québécois a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 40%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Bloc	Liberal	Conservative	NDP
Mirabel	39.3%	33.6%	23.8%	5.4%
Provincial averageQuebec	27.3%+12.0	43.6%−10.0	24.2%−0.4	5.7%−0.3
National averageCanada	6.3%+33.0	47.0%−13.4	30.4%−6.6	11.8%−6.4

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 94.0% English 3.5% Other languages 2.5%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Jean-Denis Garon · Bloc

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Bloc Québécois won by 6.5 points, with 69.3% turnout.

Our current projection: the Bloc Québécois ahead by 5.8 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Jean-Denis Garon Elected	Bloc	22,494	39.3	Professor
Robert Fleming	Liberal	18,796	32.8	Political Attaché
Serge Dubord	Conservative	12,544	21.9	Correctional Officer
Albert Batten	NDP	1,333	2.3	Union Officer
Mario Guay	Green	792	1.4	Construction Contractor
Christian Montpetit	PPC	400	0.7	Real Estate Portfolio Manager
Other candidates		892	1.6

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.