Vaudreuil

Federal riding · Quebec

Forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Liberal Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 32.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2025 result.

	Liberal	Conservative	Bloc	NDP
Vaudreuil	58.1%	25.3%	14.8%	3.7%
Provincial averageQuebec	43.6%+14.5	24.2%+1.1	27.3%−12.5	5.7%−2.0
National averageCanada	47.0%+11.1	30.4%−5.1	6.3%+8.5	11.8%−8.1

Simple average of the 343 ridings, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Language spoken most often at home	French 51.2% English 39.7% Other languages 9.1%

Source: Statistics Canada, 2021 Census (single responses)

Peter Schiefke · Liberal

In office since April 28, 2025. 45th Parliament.

The Liberal Party won by 34.7 points, with 74.9% turnout.

Our current projection: the Liberal Party ahead by 32.8 points.

Candidate	Party	Votes	%	Occupation
Peter Schiefke Elected	Liberal	40,982	57.3	Parliamentarian
Thomas Barré	Conservative	16,179	22.6	Lobbyist
Christopher Massé	Bloc	10,571	14.8	Environmental Consultant
Kalden Dhatsenpa	NDP	1,602	2.2	Journalist
Dave Hamelin-Schuilenburg	Green	957	1.3	Emergency Services Dispatcher
Jean Boily	PPC	527	0.7	Representative
Other candidates		654	0.9

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.